Michigan State at Nebraska Preview
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln
The Setup
Both Michigan State and Nebraska are coming off a bye week, so there’s no excuse for tired legs. Nebraska sits at 3–1 after a tough 30–27 loss to Michigan, while MSU is also 3–1, coming off a 45–31 defeat to USC.
The Huskers are favored by double digits, but Michigan State has had two weeks to regroup and game plan. The big questions: Can the Spartans’ defense hang in long enough to give Aidan Chiles and the offense a chance? Will they be able to handle a loud Memorial stadium, and take the crowd out of the game like Michigan did time and time again?
The Raiola Factor
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has the arm, the swagger, and yes, even the Mahomes-style flair that rubs some fans the wrong way. Love him or hate him, he’s the engine of their offense. And by now you should know, he is the son of former Detroit Lion, Domonic Raiola.
Against Michigan, Raiola threw for over 300 yards, but he also took a beating — seven sacks. After that game he told reporters, “Point it at me. I’ll take it,” showing some leadership, but also admitting the offense has to finish better in the red zone.
If Michigan State can bring similar pressure, they might rattle him. If they let him stand tall in the pocket, he’ll pick them apart.
Michigan State’s Keys
Here’s what the Spartans have to do to stay alive in Lincoln:
- Limit the big plays. Nebraska’s receivers will test them deep and on crossing routes. MSU can’t give up easy 40-yard strikes.
- Stay disciplined against short passes. If they blitz too often, Nebraska will happily dump it off to a running back and let him chew up yards.
- Pick their moments to blitz. Pressure is important, but it has to come as a surprise. Predictable blitzes will backfire. The defensive backs haven’t held up well in these situations so far.
- Win the red zone. Nebraska has had trouble finishing drives. If MSU forces field goals instead of touchdowns, they keep the game close.
Offense Has to Help
Quarterback Aidan Chiles is the guy Michigan State leans on. He can move the pocket and make plays, but he needs help from his receivers, especially Nick Marsh, and a steadier run game to keep Nebraska honest.
The Spartans can’t afford three-and-outs or turnovers that give Raiola extra possessions. If Chiles plays clean football and gets some balance from the ground game, MSU can trade punches for a while.
Every week, the Spartans will rely on Chiles and his ability to improvise. I, for one, would like to see him run as much as possible in this game. It gives MSU the best chance of keeping Nebraska’s defense off-balance. If Chiles doesn’t run for at least 50 yards, they are in for a long afternoon.
The Health Factor
Michigan State
- Nick Marsh (WR): Questionable with a leg injury. He’s one of their best young playmakers — if he can’t go, that’s a big hit to the passing game.
- Tarik Ahmetbasic (K): Questionable. Special teams consistency is a factor in close road games.
- Jace Clarizio (RB): Questionable with a calf issue.
- Brennan Parachek (TE): Questionable with a foot injury.
That’s a lot of “maybes” on offense for the Spartans, and if they’re short on weapons, Aidan Chiles’ job gets much harder.
Nebraska
- Demitrius Bell (WR): Questionable with a knee injury — he’s one of Raiola’s favorite targets.
- Mac Markway (TE): Also questionable (knee). Could affect Nebraska’s red zone packages.
- Janiran Bonner (WR): Out for the year with an ACL tear. Depth at wide receiver is thinner than usual.
So while MSU has injury concerns on offense, Nebraska’s pass-catching group isn’t at full strength either. That could tilt things toward a slower, grind-it-out kind of game.
Prediction
This one feels like a game where Michigan State can hang around for a half, maybe even into the third quarter, but Nebraska’s firepower is tough to contain for four straight quarters. The Huskers are also eager to bounce back after falling short against Michigan.
Prediction: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24
If the Spartans get turnovers and force Nebraska to settle for field goals, it could be closer than the spread suggests. But if Raiola finds his rhythm early, it could get away from them in the second half.
