Homecoming Noon Clash: Michigan State Looks to Right the Ship vs UCLA
East Lansing will wake up early this Saturday. For once, the tailgates won’t stretch deep into the afternoon — Michigan State’s homecoming matchup with UCLA kicks off at noon ET on the Big Ten Network. Some Spartan fans love it — get the game in, enjoy the rest of the day — while others miss the long build-up and late-day buzz that Spartan Stadium usually thrives on. Either way, the place will be packed. Here is my Michigan State vs. UCLA Preview.
California Roots, Midwest Stage
Nearly three years ago, Aidan Chiles and Nico Iamaleava were high-school stars in Southern California, facing off under Friday-night lights. Fast-forward to 2025, and they’re both leading Big Ten programs.
Chiles, now guiding Michigan State (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten), transferred from Oregon State with head coach Jonathan Smith. Iamaleava left Tennessee for UCLA, where he’s quickly matured — leading the Bruins to a stunning 42-37 win over then-No. 7 Penn State last week with five total touchdowns.
The two meet again, this time in East Lansing, each trying to steady programs searching for consistency.
Notable Injuries
UCLA — Out: DL Nico Davillier (personal), DL Robert James III (undisclosed, season), DL Tyler Partlow (undisclosed, season), WR Jonah Smith (undisclosed, season), QB Pierce Clarkson (indefinitely suspended), WR Karson Gordon (undisclosed), OL Jaylen Jeffers (undisclosed, season), OL K.D. Arnold (undisclosed, season). Questionable: WR Jadyn Marshall, LB Ben Perry, DB Croix Stewart (all undisclosed).
Michigan State — Out: WR Alante Brown (undisclosed), DB Nikai Martinez, LB Marcellus Pulliam, DB Ade Willie, DB Caleb Gash (season), DB Andrew Brinson IV (season), K Tarik Ahmetbasic, LB Brady Pretzlaff (season), LS Kaden Schickel, OL Stanton Ramil, OL Luka Vincic (season).
Both sides are banged up, particularly along the defensive and offensive lines — making depth a potential deciding factor.
What’s at Stake
For UCLA, the Penn State upset injected long-overdue energy into Westwood, CA. Interim head coach Tim Skipper and play-caller Jerry Neuheisel finally saw the offense click, and another win could flip a lost season into something respectable.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is still looking for traction. None of its five games have ended convincingly. Jonathan Smith — ironically mentioned early in UCLA’s coaching search — has yet to generate the rhythm he had at Oregon State. Losing homecoming to a struggling UCLA squad would ratchet up the pressure fast.
Where Michigan State Must Improve
Last week’s 38-27 loss at Nebraska was a mixed bag: defensive pressure was excellent (five sacks, seven tackles for loss), but special-teams disasters — a blocked punt and a fumbled kickoff — handed the Huskers free points.
Aidan Chiles threw for only 85 yards with two interceptions, but did run for two scores. I mentioned last week that Chiles would need to run over 50 yards in the game for MSU to win. He did run, but mostly that was for his safety. Cornhuskers were all over him, and he left that game banged up. He’ll need to use his legs again and avoid silly throws that lead to turnovers.
His on-field dust-up with receiver Nick Marsh drew headlines, yet reports say the two have moved past it. Marsh’s involvement will be key; he’s MSU’s top playmaker and must get touches early.
Keys to Victory
- Win the trenches. MSU’s offensive line has to protect Chiles better. UCLA’s defensive front will test protection on every down.
- Contain Iamaleava. He’s lethal when improvising — maintaining rush-lane discipline will be critical.
- Limit mistakes. Expect flags and miscues on both sides. The cleaner team likely wins.
- Feed the backs. Makhi Frazier and Chiles together can control tempo if the Spartans commit to the run.
- Handle the weather. Wet conditions could neutralize UCLA’s speed advantage.
Who’s Better?
Statistically, Michigan State holds an edge defending the run — 33rd nationally and 10th in the Big Ten — which could slow Iamaleava’s ground game. The Bruins have more offensive creativity, but MSU has the home crowd, defensive grit, and slightly more stability.
Forecast & Betting Line
Expect a true fall Saturday: partly sunny, around 60 °F, light winds, and a 50 percent chance of scattered showers as the game wears on. It might be one of those days where weather and ball control decide possessions.
Line: Michigan State –7.5 | O/U 55.5
Oddsmakers still see the Spartans as the better roster, but neither team has played clean football lately — so a single mistake could swing it.
The Bottom Line
I suspect this will be a mistake-filled, penalty-heavy grind — one that could annoy both fanbases before the final whistle. UCLA is gaining momentum, but Michigan State’s defense and home-field advantage may be just enough. If MSU wants any chance of finishing higher than 13th in the Big Ten, like they did last year, this is a must-win. State finished 2-7 in the conference last year, and without a win over the Bruins, it might be tough to find two more wins on the schedule.
Jonathan Smith wasn’t hired to coach teams that only have 2 conference wins, and it seems he’s heading down that path for a second straight year. I urge you to look at the schedule and find a game that you can confidently say MSU will win. I can’t.
Prediction: Michigan State 27, UCLA 25
Look for a late field goal or defensive stand to seal it as the Spartans finally notch their first Big Ten win of the season under Smith.
