MSU Football: Spiraling Toward Disaster as They Head to Indiana
This is not how I wanted to start the MSU vs Indiana Preview, but let’s be real — this Michigan State team looks lost. What happened against UCLA wasn’t just bad football; it was embarrassing. It was homecoming, recruits were visiting, and the Spartans looked like they didn’t even want to be there. When a team that started 0–4 comes into your house, travels cross-country twice in two weeks, and still dominates you in all phases, that’s not a “tough day at the office.” That’s a red flag for the entire program.
And now, they’ve got to walk into Bloomington — against an Indiana team that’s surging, just gave Curt Cignetti a massive 8-year, $90-plus million contract, and looks like a program on the rise. These are two teams going in completely opposite directions: one on a rocket ship, and the other falling off the cliff. Is this an overreaction? I guess that’s for the Spartans to decide tomorrow.
Coaching Reality Check
The truth is, Jonathan Smith’s seat is getting hot — and fast. He didn’t get hired by J. Batt, Michigan State’s athletic director. That matters. Batt came from Georgia Tech (and before that, Alabama), and he’s got no loyalty to a guy sitting 8-10 overall and 3-9 in the Big Ten. Those numbers don’t inspire patience. If things don’t turn around, this season could end with another coaching search — and honestly, I wouldn’t blame the administration for it.
Aidan Chiles: Talented, But Still a Mess
Here’s where it gets even messier. Aidan Chiles should be the future, but right now he’s part of the problem. He’s shown flashes — confidence, poise, arm talent — but then he reverts to that panicky freshman mode. He forces throws, misses open receivers, and too often makes the kind of mistake that changes games for the worse.
Now he’s banged up again after that helmet-to-helmet hit last week, and the question is whether he’ll even play. Jonathan Smith said Chiles was limited in practice, which isn’t what you want to hear going up against one of the most physical defenses in the conference.
When he was rolling in Weeks 2-4, Chiles averaged 18-for-26 for 238 yards and eight total touchdowns. Over the last two games? 9-for-20 for 76 yards per game, zero touchdowns, two picks. You can’t win with that.
If he can’t go, redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic might get his first start — and good luck to him. Indiana’s defense leads the Big Ten in sacks (3.6 per game) and ranks top-10 nationally in pass defense. MSU’s O-line, which ranks 105th in sacks allowed, could make that a nightmare.
Defense: From Promise to Pitiful
Two weeks ago, it looked like the defense might be turning a corner. Against Nebraska, they had five straight stops, five sacks, and a little swagger. Against UCLA? Gone. No energy. No pressure. No discipline.
Now they face an Indiana offense averaging 240 rushing yards and 260 passing yards per game — one of the most balanced attacks in the country. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Unless MSU forces turnovers, this could get ugly fast.
There’s some hope that Jalen Thompson and Nikai Martinez return this week — they’d both help — but it won’t matter unless this defense starts playing like it has some pride.
Wideouts and “Portal Watch”
At some point, you start wondering who’s even going to stick around after this season. Games like this — where you’re outclassed, out-hustled, and out-coached — are what send players to the transfer portal.
You have to think guys like Nick Marsh are looking around, wondering what comes next. He’s talented enough to play anywhere, and he might start asking himself the same questions Keon Coleman did before he bolted for Florida State.
If MSU has any chance to keep it close, Marsh or Omari Kelly has to have a monster day. I’m talking about a “can’t be stopped” type of performance. Otherwise, this thing will get sideways early.
Mentality Matters
This team looks broken. The body language is awful, the confidence is shot, and they’re playing like a group that’s just waiting for the next mistake. Indiana, on the other hand, plays like a team that believes. They’ve got juice, they’ve got swagger, and they’ve got a head coach who’s setting a new standard.
If MSU gets punched in the mouth early — which feels inevitable — will they respond? Or will they fold again like they did last week?
Prediction, Line, and Weather
- Spread: Indiana -27.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: MSU +1700
- Weather (Bloomington): Mostly cloudy, high of 80°, chance of scattered storms
If Michigan State leaves Bloomington with a three-touchdown loss, that’ll practically feel like a win. But I don’t see that happening. Indiana’s too good, MSU’s too fragile, and this one feels like the game that finally breaks what little is left of the Spartans’ spirit.
Prediction: Indiana 45, Michigan State 10.
