Lions v. Buccaneers: Monday Night Gut Check
Lions vs Buccaneers Monday Night Football Preview: Big stage. Real measuring stick.
The Lions are 4-2, Tampa’s 5-1, and both teams look like they belong in the NFC playoff picture. But this one feels bigger for Detroit. They’ve had a long week of noise — refs, suspensions, controversy — and now they’ve got to block all that out and go win against a team that’s been one of the league’s best so far.
Still talking about Kansas City
Let’s be honest — last week left a bad taste. The overturned Goff touchdown, the late calls, the Branch-JuJu mess. And now there are questions about how that officiating crew handled the call in real time. Campbell’s version of what happened doesn’t exactly match the league’s explanation, and it’s created noise all around the league this week.
He’s trying to steer things back toward football — focus on Tampa, not the fallout. Easier said than done, but that’s what leaders do.
Tampa’s rolling behindBaker
Baker Mayfield isn’t just some nice comeback story anymore — he’s just a really good quarterback, and everything’s coming together for him right out of the gate this year. He plays with swagger and confidence, and he’s finally playing like the guy who warranted his draft position.
He’s been very good the past couple of seasons, but this year he’s taken another step. A third of the way through the season, he’s being tossed around in MVP conversations — and for good reason. His decision-making, accuracy, and command of the offense have been rock solid.
Even with guys banged up (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Bucky Irving among them), Tampa finds ways to move the ball. They don’t beat themselves, and that’s usually a bad sign for whoever they play next.
Quarterback Snapshot
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay)
- 1,539 yards (4th NFL)
- 12 TD / 1 INT
- 73.9 % completions
- 70.6 QBR (Top 10)
Jared Goff (Detroit)
- 1,390 yards (9th NFL)
- 14 TD / 2 INT (League-leading TD total)
- 75.9 % completions
- 72.9 QBR (5th NFL)
Bottom line: Monday night is a showcase of two veterans who’ve found their stride. Baker has the buzz, but Goff’s playing at an elite level too. Whoever stays mistake-free probably wins this game.
Lions defense has to win up front
Detroit’s secondary is thin. Brian Branch is out, Kerby Joseph is still sore, and Terrion Arnold is just working back. That’s not ideal when you’re facing a quarterback who’s been carving people up.
The good news: Alim McNeill is back. That’s huge. He hasn’t played in almost a year, but he’s looked good in practice and should help right away. He clogs the middle and can push the pocket — exactly what they’ve been missing.
The front seven has to take over. Hutchinson needs to have one of those “I’m the best player on the field” nights, and the linebackers as a group have to clean up the short stuff and keep Baker from scrambling out of bad plays. If that unit controls the line of scrimmage and tackles well, the Lions can hang in this one.
Injury Watch: Tampa’s hurting too
Tampa comes in with a long injury list. According to Friday’s report, Lavonte David (knee/rib), Emeka Egbuka (hamstring), Mike Evans (hamstring), Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula), Luke Haggard (shoulder), Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder), and Josh Williams (concussion) all did not practice. Evans was limited Thursday but sat Friday, which isn’t a great sign for Monday night.
On the bright side for Tampa, corners Zyon McCollum and Benjamin Morrison were both full participants, so their secondary should be near full strength.
For Detroit, Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and D.J. Reader (back) were limited on Friday after missing Thursday. Kerby Joseph, Avonte Maddox, and Sione Vaki all remained out. On the positive side, Taylor Decker, Zach Cunningham, and were all trending up.
Translation: both teams are banged up, but Tampa’s injuries are mostly on offense, while Detroit’s are on the back end of the defense — which could shape how this game plays out.
Offense needs rhythm early
Detroit’s offense can’t start slow. Tampa’s defense under Todd Bowles is physical, aggressive, and tough to run on — they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards in football.
That means OC John Morton must mix it up. I want to see more David Montgomery early — set a tone, get some balance back. But they’ve got to use the edges, not just slam into Vita Vea all night. He’s too big, too good. Stretch the field, get Jahmyr Gibbs out in space, and keep the defense moving.
And it’s on Jared Goff to stay cool. He’s been efficient most of the year, but Tampa disguises coverages well. He can’t force balls into traffic or drift under pressure. Quick reads, timing throws, and take what they give.
If the Lions can stay ahead of the sticks, they can hang around. If not, it’s going to be a long night.
Matchups that matter
- Hutchinson vs. Tampa’s right side: With their line banged up, this is where Hutch has to dominate.
- Lions interior line vs. Vita Vea: You can’t let him blow up every run. Double him, move him, anything.
- Montgomery & Gibbs combo: Use both. Tampa’s fast, but they over-pursue. Make them chase.
- Jameson Williams deep threat: Need at least one shot downfield to loosen things up. Doesn’t have to be perfect — just show the threat.
My gut says this one’s tough
I’d love to call a Lions bounce-back win. Home crowd, black jerseys, prime time. It all sounds right. But my gut says this game’s a grind, and Tampa’s seems to play Detroit tough when the teams meet.
Detroit’s defense has injuries, their offense hasn’t looked sharp for two weeks, and Tampa doesn’t make the kind of mistakes that bail you out.
If it’s close in the fourth quarter, I’m worried that Baker to make some ridiculous play that kicks Detroit in the teeth. Lions’ fans don’t need another week of heartbreak.
The pick
So, I’m going to say that the Tampa hangs around long enough to make it very uncomfortable, but they ultimately fall to the Lions.
Lions 31, Buccaneers 27.
To win, Detroit must play clean and focused for four full quarters.
Get ready to watch a gut-wrenching game, and hopefully a Lion victory. Go Lions!!!
