Michigan State Basketball Analysis: Offense Doesn’t Have Enough Shooters
Michigan State is 20–5. They’re 10–4 in the Big Ten. They just beat a top-five Illinois team in overtime behind a masterclass from Jeremy Fears Jr.
And yet, watching this team closely, it’s hard to shake the feeling that something is missing.
This isn’t a bad basketball team. It’s a frustrating one. Because you can see how close they are. You can see the potential. But it still feels like Tom Izzo is one shooter short of balance — one dependable perimeter threat away from a lineup that makes sense when the games tighten in March.
Unfortunately, there are no “trade deadlines” in college basketball. There aren’t any reinforcements coming, and this team lacks the shooting necessary to be a championship team.
The Illinois High vs. The Wisconsin Reality
The win over Illinois showed exactly what this team can be. Fears controlled tempo, delivered 26 points and 15 assists, and the Breslin Center felt like March again. The Spartans competed, rebounded, and executed late.
Six days later, Wisconsin handed them what Izzo called a “good old fashioned ass kicking.”
That was how he opened his postgame.
Not praise. Not teaching points. Just blunt honesty.
The Badgers hit their first five threes and never looked back. They finished 15-of-35 from deep and scored 92 points. Michigan State was chasing the game almost immediately, which has become an uncomfortable trend. The Spartans have now trailed at halftime in five straight games and have lost three of their last four.
For a program built on defensive discipline, that’s not noise. That’s a warning sign.
The Assist Stat You Can’t Ignore
There was another number from Madison that stood out even more than the score.
Jeremy Fears Jr. finished with 12 assists. The rest of the team combined for one. McCulloch had that lone assist. Everyone else recorded zero.
When Izzo was asked whether that suggested poor ball movement, he dismissed it. His explanation was simple and logical: you make shots, you get assists. Missed shots kill assist totals. He’s not wrong. That’s how the box score works.
But visually, it didn’t look like flowing team basketball. It looked like one creator generating and everyone else reacting. When only two players register assists in a 40-minute game, it raises legitimate questions about spacing and rhythm.
Maybe Izzo is right. Maybe this stat fixes itself if open shots fall. But that circles back to the same issue — this team doesn’t consistently knock down those shots.
The Shooting Problem Is Structural
Opponents are packing the paint. They’re daring Michigan State to win from the outside.
Against Wisconsin, MSU shot 8-of-27 from three. Thirty percent isn’t disastrous, but it’s not threatening. It doesn’t force defensive adjustments. When defenders can sag into driving lanes and crowd post entries without consequence, the offense tightens.
Jaxon Kohler looked earlier in the season like he was becoming that stretch big who could open space. He was stepping confidently into shots and making defenses think twice. Lately, that shooting confidence has cooled. He’s still rebounding at a high level, but if he’s not stretching the floor, the geometry changes.
Carson Cooper brings energy and physicality, but he’s not commanding doubles or forcing rotations. When your bigs aren’t stretching or dominating inside, and your wings aren’t punishing sagging defenders, the math just doesn’t work consistently.
Losing Divine Ugochukwu Matters
Divine Ugochukwu’s recent absence hasn’t dominated headlines, but it has mattered. He could make shots — real perimeter shots that forced closeouts. In a roster already short on reliable shooting, losing one of the few players who could bend a defense even slightly makes everything harder.
Jordan Scott’s development has been encouraging. He’s growing into a legitimate contributor who looks comfortable taking and making shots. Coen Carr flashes impact moments and played well in stretches this week, but consistency remains elusive.
Flashes are exciting. March requires reliability.
Defensive Slippage Is Compounding the Issue
The shooting frustration would be easier to stomach if the defense were airtight. Instead, Michigan State has allowed 80-plus to Illinois and 92 to Wisconsin in back-to-back games.
Trailing early has become routine. Playing from behind tightens offensive pressure, which only amplifies shooting struggles. It’s a cycle that’s difficult to break.
This team still competes. The effort isn’t in question. But the margin for error feels thin. Too thin for comfort heading toward tournament play.
📊 Stat Capsule 🏀
Record: 20–5 (10–4 Big Ten)
Swing Week:
- OT win vs No. 5 Illinois
- 92–71 loss at Wisconsin
Assist Breakdown (Wisconsin):
- Jeremy Fears Jr – 12
- McCulloch – 1
- Rest of roster – 0
Primary Concern:
- Perimeter inconsistency
- Opponents packing the paint
- Defensive regression
The Honest Read
Michigan State is talented enough to beat elite teams. They proved that against Illinois. But they are also vulnerable to disciplined defensive schemes that clog the paint and dare them to shoot.
Right now, they haven’t shown they can consistently win that battle.
It feels like Izzo is one reliable 38-to-40 percent shooter short of true balance. Instead, he’s asking developing players to grow into that role in real time. Sometimes that works. Sometimes it doesn’t.
The frustration comes from knowing how close this team is. Close enough to see it. Not balanced enough to fully trust it.
That’s a tough place to be in February.
Is Michigan State’s offense built to survive March — or are we seeing the ceiling right now? Drop your comment below or join the conversation in the Spartans Sound Off — where fans break down every game, every angle.”
Info gathered from team reports, pressers & trusted media outlets — the way we always do it at Mitten Sports Talk.
